Rishi Sunak warned disaffected Tory supporters last night they risk letting Labour in for years - as analysis of polling figures showed a small number of Reform voters could prevent Sir Keir Starmer winning a supermajority.

In a speech to Tory activists, the Prime Minister acknowledged public anger with the Conservatives but urged voters to ‘think what a Labour government would mean’ before risking a protest vote for Reform that could help hand ‘unchecked’ power to Labour.

Analysis of one major poll yesterday suggested that just 34,000 swing voters in key seats could halve Labour’s projected 200 majority. The YouGov data suggested Labour could lose its notional majority entirely if only 132,000 voters in the tightest races opted for the next-placed party.

Analysis of a separate ‘mega poll’ suggests the Conservatives are neck and neck with Labour in dozens of seats. The More in Common think-tank’s poll forecast Labour to be on course for a landslide majority of 162, with the number of Conservative seats slashed by more than half to 155.

But it found there were 96 seats in which the Conservatives were within five points of Labour. If the Tories won all of them, the total number of Conservative seats would jump to 203, cutting Sir Keir’s majority.

Yesterday the Daily Mail published details of 30 seats where Sir Keir’s march towards a supermajority could be held back if centre-Right voters come together.

Today this newspaper publishes another 30 seats where a small change in voting intentions could help prevent a Labour landslide.

In seats such as Welwyn Hatfield, where Defence Secretary Grant Shapps is fighting to hang on, and Bournemouth West, where former trade minister Conor Burns is in a dogfight with Labour, the Tories are a handful of points behind.

Even former home secretary Dame Priti Patel could face trouble unless centre-Right voters unite behind her in the Essex constituency of Witham. Elsewhere, in seats like West Suffolk and Beverley and Holderness, a narrow Tory lead could be hauled in by Labour with only a tiny swing unless Conservative supporters lending their votes to Reform return to the fold.

In other areas, the Conservatives need to claw back support from Reform to win against other pro-EU parties such as the Lib Dems.

In Theresa May’s old seat of Maidenhead, Tory candidate Tania Mathias is only one point ahead of the Lib Dems. Veteran Tory Ian Liddell-Grainger is three points behind the Lib Dems in Tiverton and Minehead, where Reform has support of almost nine per cent.

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2024-06-24T23:30:50Z dg43tfdfdgfd